Program
4C. Forecasting volcanic hazards I All abstracts
| Oral presentation Date/Room/Chair |
July 23 AM2 (10:45-12:30) | Room A6 | Antonio Costa, Koji Kiyosugi, Warner Marzocchi |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 23 PM1 (15:00-16:45) | Room A6 | Mark Bebbington, Alex Garcia, Eliza Calder | |
| July 23 PM2 (17:00-18:45) | Room A6 | Jacopo Selva, Mark Bebbington, Christina Magill | |
| Poster presentation | July 23 Core Time (13:30-15:00) | ||
| Convener | Mark Bebbington, Warner Marzocchi | ||
| Date/Time | No. | Title | Authors | Presenter | Page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 23 10:45-11:00 |
3A2_4C-O1 Invited |
New methods of probabilistic hazard assessment of tephra dispersal: application to the Neapolitan area | Antonio Costa, Arnau Folch, Giovanni Macedonio, Other | Antonio Costa | 1103 |
| July 23 11:00-11:15 |
3A2_4C-O2 | Short-term probabilistic hazard assessment of tephra dispersal: application to the Neapolitan area | Jacopo Selva, Antonio Costa, Laura Sandri, Other | Jacopo Selva | 1104 |
| July 23 11:15-11:30 |
3A2_4C-O3 | Modelling thickness variability in tephra deposition | Emily Kawabata, Mark S Bebbington, Shane J Cronin, Other | Emily Kawabata | 1105 |
| July 23 11:30-11:45 |
3A2_4C-O4 | Estimation of Airborne Ash Density using a Real-time Volcanic Ash Dispersion Model PUFF | Hiroshi L. Tanaka, Masato Iguchi, Saburo Onodera, Other | Hiroshi L. Tanaka | 1106 |
| July 23 11:45-12:00 |
3A2_4C-O5 | Modeling volcanic ash resuspension. Application to the 15-16 October 2011 outbreak episode in Central Patagonia, Argentina | Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Soledad Osores, Other | Arnau Folch | 1107 |
| July 23 12:00-12:15 |
3A2_4C-O6 | NWP ensembles for volcanic ash plume forecasting | Ramona Stefanescu, Marcus Bursik, Abani Patra | Marcus Bursik | 1108 |
| July 23 12:15-12:30 |
3A2_4C-O7 | On-line coupling of volcanic ash with global and regional meteorological models | Alex Marti, Arnau Folch | Alex Marti | 1109 |
| July 23 15:00-15:15 |
3P1_4C-O8 Invited |
Assessing and visualising risk from multi-phase volcanic events: a new web-based modelling platform applied to Greater Tokyo, Japan | Christina R Magill, Foster Langbein, Kazutaka Mannen | Christina R Magill | 1110 |
| July 23 15:15-15:30 |
3P1_4C-O9 | BET_VR: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic risk assessment | Jacopo Selva, Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal, Angela Di Ruocco, Other | Paolo Gasparini | 1111 |
| July 23 15:30-15:45 |
3P1_4C-O10 | Volcanic eruption durations: Forecasts and controls. | Leanne S Gunn, Steve Blake, Chris Jones, Other | Leanne S Gunn | 1112 |
| July 23 15:45-16:00 |
3P1_4C-O11 | Eruption scenario of Usu volcano, Japan | Setsuya Nakada, Tsuneomi Kagiyama, Mitsuhiro Nakagawa, Other | Setsuya Nakada | 1113 |
| July 23 16:00-16:15 |
3P1_4C-O12 | Quantifying the volcanic ash hazard to aviation in Southeast Asia | Patrick L Whelley, Chris G Newhall | Patrick L Whelley | 1114 |
| July 23 16:15-16:30 |
3P1_4C-O13 | Probabilistic invasion maps of long-term pyroclastic density current hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) | Andrea Bevilacqua, Roberto Isaia, Antonella Bertagnini, Other | Augusto Neri | 1115 |
| July 23 16:30-16:45 |
3P1_4C-O14 Invited |
Probabilistic Hazard Mapping: A flexible Approach for Crisis Management | Eliza S Calder, Bruce E Pitman, Sarah E Ogburn, Other | Eliza S Calder | 1116 |
| July 23 17:00-17:15 |
3P2_4C-O15 | Constraints on eruption precursors from crustal structure and pore-fluid pressure | Christopher Kilburn | Christopher Kilburn | 1117 |
| July 23 17:15-17:30 |
3P2_4C-O16 | Evaluating the performance of models for rates of pre-eruptive seismicity | Andrew F Bell, Mark Naylor, Ian G Main | Andrew F Bell | 1118 |
| July 23 17:30-17:45 |
3P2_4C-O17 | The material failure forecast method as a potential eruption forecasting tool: application to the 2012 unrest episode at White Island volcano, New Zealand | Lauriane Chardot, Arthur D. Jolly, Steven Sherburn, Other | Lauriane Chardot | 1119 |
| July 23 17:45-18:00 |
3P2_4C-O18 | The potential role of a database in building an event probability tree: Case of Mt. Merapi eruptions | Antonius Ratdomopurbo, Chris Newhall, Joko Subandriyo, Other | Antonius Ratdomopurbo | 1120 |
| July 23 18:00-18:15 |
3P2_4C-O19 | Non-magmatic branches in the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting (BET_EF), and their implications for unrest tracking | Dmitri Rouwet, Laura Sandri, Warner Marzocchi, Other | Dmitri Rouwet | 1121 |
| July 23 18:15-18:30 |
3P2_4C-O20 | Effective decision making during volcanic crises using operations research and bayesian decision theory | Rosa Sobradelo, Rosa Sobadelo, Joan Marti, Other | Rosa Sobradelo | 1122 |
| July 23 18:30-18:45 |
3P2_4C-O21 | What to do when there is neither time nor a group of experts for expert elicitation? | Chris Newhall, John Pallister | Chris Newhall | 1123 |
| July 23 Poster |
3W_4C-P1 | Space-time Analysis of Volcanic Eruptions and Disasters in Japan for the Past 2,000 Years | Yoichi Nakamura, Yuhtaro Ito, Masato Tazawa, Other | Yoichi Nakamura | 1124 |
| July 23 Poster |
3W_4C-P2 | How Many Explosive Eruptions are Missing from the Geologic Record? Analysis of the Quaternary Record of Large Magnitude Explosive Eruptions in Japan. | Koji Kiyosugi, Charles B Connor, Stephen Sparks, Other | Koji Kiyosugi | 1125 |
| July 23 Poster |
3W_4C-P3 | An operational approach to generate and visualize Bayesian probabilistic volcanic hazard curves and maps by means of BET_VH tool | Roberto Tonini, Laura Sandri, Jacopo Selva, Other | Roberto Tonini | 1126 |
| July 23 Poster |
3W_4C-P4 | HASSET: A probability event tree tool to evaluate future eruptive scenarios based on bayesian inference. Presented as a plugin for qgis | Rosa Sobradelo, Rosa Sobradelo, Stefania Bartolini, Other | Rosa Sobradelo | 1127 |
| July 23 Poster |
3W_4C-P5 | How to cope with volcano flank dynamics? a conceptual model behind possible scenarios for Mt. Etna | Valerio Acocella, Giuseppe Puglisi | Valerio Acocella | 1128 |
| July 23 Poster |
3W_4C-P6 | Analyzing hazard vulnerability in Mt. Baekdusan area using terrain factors | Sung-Wook Kim, Eun-Kyeong Choi, In-Soo Kim, Other | Sung-Wook Kim | 1129 |
| July 23 Poster |
3W_4C-P7 | New empirical approach to estimate proximal volcanic hazard zones | Gabriel Orozco, Alvaro Amigo, Daniel Bertin, Other | Gabriel Orozco | 1130 |
| July 23 Poster |
3W_4C-P8 | Sensitivity study of numerical weather-model parameters for quantitatively estimating ash concentration in the atmospheric surface layer with a computational ash dispersion model, FALL3D | Yasuo Hattori, Hitoshi Suto, Yumiko Go, Other | Yasuo Hattori | 1131 |
| July 23 Poster |
3W_4C-P9 | GIS-based tool for long-term risk management of civil aviation during explosive volcanic eruptions | Chiara Scaini, Arnau Folch | Chiara Scaini | 1132 |
| July 23 Poster |
3W_4C-P10 | A thermal anomaly as a precursor for predictions of strong explosive volcanic eruptions | Olga A. Girina | Olga A. Girina | 1133 |
| July 23 Poster |
3W_4C-P11 | Precursory eruptions of the 2011 Shinmoedake eruptions, Kirishima volcanoes | Yasuhisa Tajima, Masaaki Tsutsui, Masashi Nagai, Other | Yasuhisa Tajima | 1134 |
| July 23 Poster |
3W_4C-P12 | Seismic Precursors to Eruptions at Volcanoes in Extensional Stress Fields | Richard Wall, Christopher Kilburn, Philip Meredith, Other | Richard Wall | 1135 |
| July 23 Poster |
3W_4C-P13 | The base method for prediction of volcanic activity | Alexander Iv. Malyshev | Alexander Iv. Malyshev | 1136 |
| July 23 Poster |
3W_4C-P14 | Seismic and volcanic risk assessment considering interactions in a multi-risk framework | Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal, Jacopo Selva, Angela Di Ruocco, Other | Jacopo Selva | 1293 |