Program

4E. Testing eruption forecast and open issues All abstracts

Oral presentation
Date/Room/Chair
July 20 PM1 (14:30-16:15) Room A3 Mark Bebbington, Gill Jolly, Laura Sandri
July 20 PM2 (16:30-18:15) Room A3 Micol Todesco, Andrew Bell, Chris Kilburn
Poster presentation July 21 Core Time (13:30-15:00)  
Convener Mark Bebbington, Andrew Bell, Micol Todesco
Date/Time No. Title Authors Presenter Page
July 20
14:30-14:45
0P1_4E-O1
Invited
Short-term eruption forecasting with BET_EF: applications and results Laura Sandri, Warner Marzocchi, Jacopo Selva, Other Laura Sandri 1179
July 20
14:45-15:00
0P1_4E-O2 Testing the efficacy of volcano alert levels Annie E.G. Winson, Fidel Costa Rodriguez, Gordon Woo, Other Annie E.G. Winson 1180
July 20
15:00-15:15
0P1_4E-O3 An assessment of volcanic unrest in the 21st century: pre-eruptive processes and timescales of reactivation Georgia Phillipson, Joachim Gottsmann Georgia Phillipson 1181
July 20
15:15-15:30
0P1_4E-O4 Assessing probabilistic forecasts of volcanic eruption onsets Mark S Bebbington Mark S Bebbington 1182
July 20
15:30-15:45
0P1_4E-O5 RETROACTIVE APPLICATION OF FORECAST FAILURE METHOD FOR PREDICTING MERAPI ERUPTION 2010 USING DEFORMATION AND SEISMIC DATA Subandriyo, Nurnaning Aisyah, Agus Budi Santoso, Other Subandriyo 1183
July 20
15:45-16:00
0P1_4E-O6 Eruption forerunners from multi-parameter monitoring and the corresponding predictability skills (Piton de la Fournaise) Agathe Schmid, Jean Robert Grasso Jean Robert Grasso 1184
July 20
16:00-16:15
0P1_4E-O7
Invited
Real-time forecasting of catastrophic rock failure and implications for predictability of volcanic eruptions Ian G Main, Andrew F Bell, Rosa Filguera, Other Ian G Main 1185
July 20
16:30-16:45
0P2_4E-O8 Identifying the form of precursory trends before eruptions: reducing uncertainty with rock-physics experiments Richard Wall, Christopher Kilburn, Philip Meredith Richard Wall 1186
July 20
16:45-17:00
0P2_4E-O9
Invited
Long swarms and short swarms Stephen R McNutt Stephen R McNutt 1187
July 20
17:00-17:15
0P2_4E-O10 Predicting the unpredictable: using families of low frequency seismicity to forecast volcanic unrest Rebecca O. Salvage, Jurgen W. Neuberg Rebecca O. Salvage 1188
July 20
17:15-17:30
0P2_4E-O11 On the self-similarity of rifting episodes Luigi Passarelli, Eleonora Rivalta Luigi Passarelli 1189
July 20
17:30-17:45
0P2_4E-O12 Simplifying assumptions in volcano modeling: are we missing something crucial? Chiara P Montagna, Antonella Longo, Paolo Papale, Other Chiara P Montagna 1190
July 20
17:45-18:00
0P2_4E-O13 On the unrest and eruptive behaviour of large calderas, with examples from Campi Flegrei Paolo Papale, Giovanni Chiodini, Micol Todesco Paolo Papale 1191
July 20
18:00-18:15
0P2_4E-O14
Invited
Rumbles and mumbles: what we know we know - and don't know - about recent volcanic activity in New Zealand Nicolas Fournier Nicolas Fournier 1192
July 21
Poster
1W_4E-P1 Tornillos modeled as self-oscillations of fluid filling a cavity: implications for the 1992-1993 activity at Galeras volcano, Colombia Kostas I. Konstantinou Kostas I. Konstantinou 1193
July 21
Poster
1W_4E-P2 Testing the performance limits of eruption forecasting models using synthetic precursory data Andrew F Bell, Mark Naylor, Ian G Main Andrew F Bell 1194
July 21
Poster
1W_4E-P3 The challenge in quantifying magma input and output to active volcanoes–an example from Kilauea Michael P. Poland, A. Jeff Sutton, Tim R. Orr Michael P. Poland 1195